The Big Picture | Q3 2026

Q3 2026  ·  Quarterly Edition

The quarter in review from the Daniel Kramp Team

My Take

The tax is still confusing. The inventory crunch is not.

By now you should know (or at least I hope you read my previous newsletter) that buying a $1M+ apartment doesn’t mean you owe the pied-à-terre tax. The $1M “value” in the law really means a second home worth about $5M.

The rollout is another story. It is so confusing that a judge just told the city to start over.

Last week, Justice Wayne Ozzi ruled that homeowners were being “substantially harmed and penalized needlessly.” He ordered the city to cancel the notices it mailed, take down its list of properties, and send new notices only to owners who actually owe. ABC7 has the quick version and 6sqft has a good plain-English recap.

The important part: the ruling is about the rollout, not the tax. The tax is still the law. The city appealed right away, which puts the judge’s order on hold. According to Inman, the city won’t send bills before November 15 or collect before January 1, and the exemption deadline has been pushed to October 13. Two new lawsuits also go after the tax itself, but those will take a while.

So what do you do? If you got a notice and the apartment is your primary home, don’t ignore it and don’t panic - talk to your accountant about the exemption before October 13. If it is a second home, nothing has changed yet. We are not tax accountants, but we keep a close eye on anything that affects our clients, so don’t hesitate to call.

Don’t hold your breath

If you’ve been waiting for more homes to hit the market before you buy, it may be time to rethink that plan. A new report from Corcoran Sunshine says the number of “entry level” new condos in Manhattan - around $1 million - will drop 74% through 2029. Just 172 are in the works. Meanwhile, new luxury supply is set to nearly quadruple.

The reason is cost. Land, labor and materials are so expensive that high-end homes are often the only ones that make sense to build. So while inventory at the entry level is getting slimmer, especially in prime Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods, the high end is getting a boost. With more new luxury homes competing for the same buyers, we hope developers focus on real quality - buyers at that level can and will be picky.

If you already own a condo in a newer building or a beautiful apartment, this works in your favor - there’s simply less new competition coming. Renters get a silver lining: about three out of four new homes will be rentals, including nearly 13,000 apartments in former Manhattan office buildings.

And with mortgage rates hitting a three-year high, I’m sure some owners thinking about an upgrade will hit pause rather than give up the super low rates they locked in back in 2020 and 2021. That will likely keep resale inventory tight, too.

Daniel

The Quarter in Numbers

Manhattan & Brooklyn, Q3 2026

Source: Christie’s International Real Estate New York, The Market in Perspective, Q3 2026. Data via UrbanDigs as of September 29, 2026.

Read the full report

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Event photos: Unsplash (Emilia Willberg, Ophelia, Spencer Imbrock, Johnell Pannell) and Pexels.

Our Listings

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Also in contract: 318 West 100th Street, 1D and 25 Sutton Place South, 11C

One Last Thing

The Tequila Gimlet

My wife’s favorite, and lately it seems to be everyone’s.

2 oz blanco tequila
¾ oz fresh lime juice
¾ oz simple syrup
A lime wheel to garnish

Shake hard with ice until the tin is frosty. Strain into a chilled coupe, or over fresh ice, and garnish with lime. Cheers.

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